This is the 1st of several postings concerning the future of the AFL-CIO, and the labor movement as a whole, which will appear over the course of the next week, leading up to the AFL-CIO convention in Chicago later this month.

From July 25-28, 2005, at Navy Pier in Chicago, the AFL-CIO will convene its quadrennial convention and officer elections. There is much controversy surrounding the status of current AFL-CIO president John Sweeney and the potential for four AFL-CIO affiliates, including its biggest union affiliate, to split from the mother ship due to ideological differences with Sweeney. Moreover, the federation is celebrating its 50th anniversary at the convention.

Does any of this really matter? Will it affect business and the labor movement in any meaningful matter? I don’t think so and here’s why.

The total number of unionized workers in the U.S. has been in decline for years. According to the Labor Research Association (LRA), which is a pro-union advocacy group, the total number of unionized employees between 1988 and 2004 declined from 17,002,000 to 15,472,000. Also compare this to 1975 when there were a total of 22,207,000 union represented employees. Percentage wise, in 1988, 16.8% of the total labor force was unionized, whereas in 2004 only 12.5% was unionized. Moreover, depending on the reports read, which for brevity’s sake I won’t cite, the percentage of unionized employees has further declined to 12% and, in my opinion, will continue to decline.

The decline is more pronounced in the private sector. According to the LRA, in 1970 at the apex of an upswing in those represented, there were 16,978,000 unionized employees in the private sector. This was 29.1% of the total private sector workforce. In 1988, there were 10,674,000 private sector unionized employees (12.9% of the total unionized private sector workforce). And in 2004, this declined to 8,205,000 employees or 7.9% of the total private sector workforce. A steep decline over the past few decades. The public sector has fared better in the U.S. However, as I will explain, this is irrelevant.

From 1988 until 2004, the total number of public sector unionized employees increased from 6,298,000 employees to 8,131,000. The 2004 number represents an all-time high for this sector. But, the percentage of unionized employees in the public sector has remained consistent since 1972. In 1972, 35.4% employees were unionized, in 1988 36.7% were unionized and in 2004, 36.6% were unionized. Without using methods of statistical analysis, the public sector appears to be one of the winnable and final battlefronts for the domestic union movement. If the size of government keeps increasing, as the numbers indicate, then the public sector unions may prosper (assuming privatization doesn’t prevail).

Yet, because of the continuing decline in the private sector, the labor movement should continue to decline. In fact, if you read recent reports by AFL-CIO unions, you’ll pretty much discover doom and gloom as the central theme. The AFL-CIO’s largest affiliate, the Service Employee International Union (SEIU), and the International Association of Fire Fighters support the contention that the union movement is losing steam in the U.S.

My next post will discuss recent reports published by AFL-CIO affiliates and plans to reform the union movement.